The Annual Report of the Climate Change Committee: Implications for Brighton and Hove
The Annual Report of the CCC
The independent Climate Change Committee was established by Act of Parliament in 2008. Its roles include advising on legally-binding carbon budgets for five year periods into the future (most recently CB 6, which runs to 2037), advising the Government on how to meet emission and adaptation targets, and reporting on progress to Parliament. Its most recent progress report was published on 18 July. The main focus with regard to emissions is on territorial emissions, to which targets refer, though there is reference to consumption emissions.
The Executive Summary of the Report is pasted in below for ease of reference. Its main conclusions are:
The UK over-achieved by 15% on emissions reductions required during the CB 3 period to 2022, though partly (not only) because of slow growth and COVID. The UK’s territorial emissions (excluding emissions from the UK’s contribution to international aviation and shipping) are now less than half the levels in 1990.
Progress is being made towards the 2030 target in the UK’s international commitment (its Nationally Determined Contribution), CBs 4-6, and the Net Zero target for 2050. However, ‘the previous Government signalled a slowing of pace and reversed or delayed key policies. The new Government will have to act fast to hit the country’s commitments.’ The CCC points especially to removing the exemption of 20% of households from the 2035 fossil-fuel boiler installation phase-out, removing obligations on landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rented homes, and delaying the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales’. It says that ‘only a third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the 2030 target are currently covered by credible plans.’
Adaptation is also off-track: ‘The UK’s Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3) lacks the pace and ambition to address growing climate risks which we are already experiencing’.
As to what has to happen next, the Report notes that past success has been driven by decarbonisation of electricity supply, but that action now needs to focus on other sectors, especially transport, building and industry. There are ten priorities, summarised in Box 1:
The full report is definitely worth a read. There are some excellent graphics not in the ES.
Implications for Brighton and Hove
The CCC report comes at an interesting time for Brighton and Hove: a relatively new Council, with new Net Zero ambitions; a new adaptation strategy; a new Economic Plan; a decarbonisation pathways study about to issue; and a raft of other initiatives summarised in the Council Plan and the regular Forward Plan.
What are the implications of the CCC Report for Brighton and Hove? Obviously, there are many changes which require Government policy (e.g. dealing with gas and electricity pricing), but here are a few items for us locally.
Do we really want a Brighton and Hove commitment to net zero by 2030 to stand, as in the Carbon Neutral Programme? Would it not be better for the City to grasp the nettle and align with the Government’s commitment to net zero by 2050? Or is it the case that B&H, as largely a service economy, can be just slightly more ambitious?
Can we make sure to deal not just with territorial emissions (currently about 800,000 tons CO2e a year in B&H, or 3 tons/capita), but imported emissions, which account for over 40% of the UK’s footprint, or consumption emissions, meaning that the national average per capita emissions are not 3 tons, but over 10 tons (and B&H is probably above average)).
We really need to take a dynamic, long-term view of how the City will change, and embed that thinking in all the strategies. For example, the new Economic Strategy has a ten-year mission to ‘decarbonise and create a more regenerative economy’. But if B&H is currently a £9.5 bn economy with 290,000 residents, what will it be in 2034? If population grows at only 1% a year, there will be an extra 30,000 people by 2034. And if the economy grows by 2% p.a., then the economy by 2034 will be £2bn larger.
This kind of thinking impacts on sector targets. The new Government looks likely to impose new housing targets on local authorities. B&H previously had a target of 13,200 new homes over the period 2010-2030. What will the new target be? And will B&H ensure that all new homes meet the highest Future Homes Standard, with solar panels on every roof, and universal heat pumps?
And then what about retro-fitting? The CCC says that homes fitted with heat pumps must rise from 1% to 10% by the end of the decade. Brighton has some 120,000 households, of which at least 90,000 have gas boilers. Only 221 heat pumps were installed between 2009 and 2023v, so basically 90,000 are still needed overall, or 9,000 by 2030. There are 335 weeks left until the end of 2030, so that amounts to a target of 312 installations a week between now and then. Way to go!
Where are the installers, for insulation and for both heat pumps and solar? The CCC commends the Government for increasing the subsidy for new air heat source pump installations, from £5,000 to £7,500, but also calls for a new strategy to support skills. The training programme of Brighton Met is crucial to the climate ambitions of B&H.
What can B&H do to foster innovative community energy programmes, including district heat networks? Worthing is being celebrated for pushing ahead with a district heating network, with air source heat pumps on the roof of a car park, that will initially serve the hospital and Council buildings. What can B&H do that is similar, for public and domestic buildings? BHESCO has expertise on that.
Transport is identified as a major issue in the CCC report. The next B&H Local Transport Plan is eagerly awaited, but is held up awaiting new Government guidance. Meanwhile, the Council is making progress with active travel and other initiatives. The Low Traffic Future Alliance has published guidelines and suggestions on local transport planning.
And then there are things the Council can and must do: decarbonize its own activities (even though they account for less than 1% of the City’s footprint); improve recycling; roll out more EV charging points; implement the adaptation plan; work with landlords to improve EPC standards; and plant trees, many more trees, in streets, in parks, and on public land around the City.
Finally, B&H is committed to working with the wider region. Sussex Energy was launched in July 2024 by Greater Brighton, to link up work from Bognor Regis to Seaford, and up to Crawley. There is a self-sufficiency target for 2040, and there are many interesting plans, for example for Shoreham Harbour. There are also lots of questions about the value of a small area being self-sufficient, about economies of scale and cost-effectiveness, and about how to design contracts to work successfully with the private sector (and avoid another case like the i-360?).
No doubt more could be added. What have I missed?
The bottom line, though, is that the CCC provides an independent and definitive framework, which should guide local authorities as well as national Governments.
Simon Maxwell
Perspective pieces are the responsibility of the authors, and do not commit Climate:Change in any way. Comments are welcome.
Appendix
Climate Change Committee
Progress in Reducing Emissions: 2024 Report to parliament
Executive summary
The UK has a successful track record of emissions reductions, having met all its targets so far. Territorial emissions have now fallen by over half. We should celebrate this, and the Committee applauds the efforts of successive governments to achieve it. However last year, despite some progress, the previous Government signalled a slowing of pace and reversed or delayed key policies. The new Government will have to act fast to hit the country’s commitments.
Recently, we’ve seen the wettest 18 months on record in England. Thousands of acres of farmland have been submerged for extended periods, leading to the loss of crops and animals. The impact of this is expected to be felt well into 2025. Livelihoods have been disrupted and lives lost in the UK and overseas as a direct consequence of climate impacts, which are becoming more severe.
The cost of key low-carbon technologies is falling, creating an opportunity for the UK to boost investment, reclaim global climate leadership and enhance energy security by accelerating take-up. British-based renewable energy is the cheapest and fastest way to reduce vulnerability to volatile global fossil fuel markets. The faster we get off fossil fuels, the more secure we become.
Adapting to the physical risks of climate change is a pre-requisite for delivering the path to Net Zero. Otherwise, plans risk being less effective or more costly. The UK’s Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3) lacks the pace and ambition to address growing climate risks which we are already experiencing. NAP3 must be strengthened with a vision that includes clear objectives and targets. Government policymaking needs to be reorganised so that adaptation becomes a fundamental aspect and is embedded in other national policy objectives.
Urgent action is needed to get on track for the UK’s 2030 target
The UK has committed to reduce emissions in 2030 by 68% compared to 1990 levels, as its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement. It is the first UK target set in line with Net Zero. Now only six years away, the country is not on track to hit this target despite a significant reduction in emissions in 2023. Much of the progress to date has come from phasing out coal-generated electricity, with the last coal-fired power station closing later this year. We now need to rapidly reduce oil and gas use as well.
Last year saw a significant fall in emissions, as well as some good progress on policy by the previous Government: confirmation of the zero-emission vehicle mandate; leaving the Energy Charter Treaty, which is not Net Zero-aligned; and an increase to total funding and individual grants for heat pumps in homes via the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which has led to a significant increase in take-up.
However, this is not enough. Our assessment is that only a third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the 2030 target are currently covered by credible plans. Action is needed across all sectors of the economy, with low-carbon technologies becoming the norm.
Priority actions
The previous Government gave inconsistent messages on its commitment to the actions needed to reach Net Zero, with cancellations of, and delays and exemptions to, important policies. It claimed to be acting in the long-term interests of the country, but there was no evidence backing the claim that dialling back ambition would reduce costs to citizens. Of particular concern to the Committee were changes to buildings policy, including exempting 20% of households from the phase-out of fossil-fuel boilers by 2035. These could seriously undermine the UK’s ability to reach its targets.
The UK should now be in a phase of rapid investment and delivery. Yet almost all our indicators for low-carbon technology roll-out are off track, with rates needing to significantly ramp up. By 2030:
Annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations will need to double and solar installations must increase by five times.
Approximately 10% of existing homes in the UK will need to be heated by a heat pump, compared to only approximately 1% today.
The market share of new electric cars needs to increase from 16.5% today to nearly 100%.
These ramp-up rates are possible to achieve, with low-carbon technologies becoming mainstream, but only with urgent and decisive action. The Committee will publish its advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget and an updated path to Net Zero early in 2025. Here, we set out ten priority actions for the remainder of this year. Rapid progress is needed to make up lost ground.
Make electricity cheaper. Removing policy costs from electricity prices will support industrial electrification and ensure the lower running costs of heat pumps compared to fossil-fuel boilers are reflected in household bills (R2024-011).
Reverse recent policy rollbacks. Remove the exemption of 20% of households from the 2035 fossil-fuel boiler installation phase-out, address the gap left by removing obligations on landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rented homes and reinstate the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales. The damage of these rollbacks can be limited by quickly reinstating these policies (R2024-016, R2024-017, R2024-029).
Remove planning barriers for heat pumps, electric vehicle charge points and onshore wind (R2024-015, R2024-032 and R2024-019).
Introduce a comprehensive programme for decarbonisation of public sector buildings (R2024-013).
Effectively design and implement the upcoming renewable energy CfD auctions. Ensure funding and auction design for the Sixth and Seventh Allocation Rounds are appropriate to deliver at least 50 GW of offshore wind by 2030 (R2024-007).
Accelerate electrification of industrial heat. Strengthen the UK Emissions Trading Scheme to ensure that its price is sufficient to incentivise decarbonisation and that support is available for a rapid transition to electric heat across much of industry (R2023-080, R2024-012).
Ramp up tree planting and peatland restoration. Tree planting must be scaled up in the 2020s for abatement to be sufficient for later carbon budgets and Net Zero. There must be no more delays to addressing the barriers to delivery (R2023-192, R2023-171).
Finalise business models for large-scale deployment of engineered removals. Finalise and open to the market the business models for engineered removals (R2024-006).
Publish a strategy to support skills. Support workers in sectors which need to grow or transition and in communities that may be adversely impacted (R2022-128, R2023-169).
Strengthen NAP3 with a vision that sets clear objectives and targets and reorganise government adaptation policy. Adaptation must become a fundamental aspect of policymaking across all departments and be integrated into other national policy objectives (R2024-030).[*]
The new Government has an opportunity to reset the UK’s direction. It must send long-term consistent messages on the importance of climate action to businesses and households, back that up with key policies to support investment and focus on removing barriers to deployment.
Emissions and the Third Carbon Budget
Final emissions data confirm that the UK has achieved its Third Carbon Budget, covering the period 2018 to 2022. The UK has now achieved all three of its carbon budgets to date, demonstrating strength in the UK’s legal framework. The UK’s territorial emissions (excluding emissions from the UK’s contribution to international aviation and shipping) are now less than half the levels in 1990.
The largest contribution to emissions reduction over the first three carbon budgets (since the start of the Climate Change Act in 2008) was from the phase-out of coal and ramp-up of renewable electricity generation. More than half of the emissions reductions seen over this period were from energy supply sectors. Looking forwards, more than three quarters of the required emissions reductions for the next three carbon budgets are expected to come from other sectors. In particular, contributions from transport, buildings, agriculture and land will need to accelerate fast.
Last year, 2023, saw an increase in the rate of emissions reductions. A provisional estimate suggests emissions, excluding contributions from international aviation and shipping which are not included in the UK’s 2030 target, fell by 22 MtCO2e (5.4%) from 415 MtCO2e in 2022 to 393 MtCO2e in 2023. In part, this was due to a more normal pattern in imports and exports of electricity with neighbouring countries, after an unusual 2022. Excluding electricity supply, which has driven the bulk of emissions reduction so far, the fall was 12 MtCO2e (3.2%), still a significantly greater reduction compared to the annual average of 6 MtCO2e (1.6%) seen in the preceding seven years.
· The fall in emissions in 2023 came primarily from a 10.5% fall in total gas demand due to increased electricity imports, reduced electricity exports and reductions in gas consumption in buildings and industry, which may in part reflect continuing high gas prices.
· There was a small decrease in surface transport emissions, despite an increase in traffic levels. Rapid growth in electric car sales is now beginning to have a measurable impact on emissions, with one million (2.8% of the overall car fleet) now on the road.
· The rate of reduction outside the electricity supply sector needs to accelerate to an annual average of 14 MtCO2e (4.6%) per year over the next seven years in order to meet the UK’s 2030 target.
· From now on, emissions reductions will need to be driven by sustained decarbonisation action including the rapid roll-out of key low-carbon technologies, tree planting and peatland restoration.
Delivery indicators
The significant fall in emissions in the last year was driven by a reduced demand for gas. This is reflected by good progress in our indicators for energy demand in buildings. Also on track is our indicator for car traffic levels, which did not fully rebound to pre-pandemic levels, although van traffic remains too high. However, our delivery indicators for low-carbon technology roll-out, tree planting and peatland restoration are off track from what is required to meet the UK’s 2030 and Net Zero targets.
Costs for some key low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels, are lower than ever. However, we have not yet reached the point where markets alone will drive the Net Zero transition. Policy is needed to provide confidence to investors and consumers; manage risks in new markets; remove barriers to delivery; and, in some cases, provide financial incentives where that is still necessary, especially in home heating. Action has been insufficient to support the required pick-up in pace.
The growth in the market share of battery-electric cars stagnated last year despite preceding years of rapid growth, bringing levels to 16.5%, and below our recommended pathway for the first time. Some other European countries such as the Netherlands, France and Ireland saw a continued growth. Sales of electric vans remain significantly off track, with a market share of only 6% in 2023. Sales of both electric cars and vans will need to significantly ramp up to approach 100% by 2030. Installation rates of public electric vehicle charging points are on track, but they need to reach treble current rates by 2030.
Progress slowed on offshore wind installations. Operational capacity will need to at least triple by 2030. This will require a three-fold increase in annual installation rates compared to the average rate seen since the start of this decade. Onshore wind installation rates will need to double and solar installation rates will need to increase five times. All three indicators are judged to be off track.
Annual heat pump installations in homes were just over 60,000 in 2023, only a 4% increase compared to the previous year. An increase has been seen in recent months following the increase to the grant available to install heat pumps via the Boiler Upgrade Scheme. The total installation rate seen in 2023 will need to increase substantially by the end of the decade, to ensure that approximately 10% of current homes are heated by a heat pump, compared to around 1% today. The UK is significantly behind other European countries.
Tree planting and peatland restoration rates are significantly off track and will both need to more than double to get as close as possible to the UK’s targets of 30,000 ha new woodland creation per year by 2025 and 32,000 ha peatland restoration per year by 2026.
Delivery needs to ramp up in these key areas in the next year to ensure the UK’s 2030 target remains within reach.
Policy assessment
Our assessment is that the previous Government’s policies and plans were insufficient to achieve the UK’s targets in the 2030s. There were a few good developments in some areas in the past year. However, policy reversals and delays in other areas, together with inconsistent messaging, have hindered progress just when acceleration was needed. With the 2030 target only six years away, and the impacts of climate change intensifying, rapid action is needed to get things back on track.
Only around one third of the emissions reductions required to meet the 2030 target are covered by credible plans, mostly in the electricity supply and surface transport sectors (Figure 2). This was a quarter last year.
· Improvements have come predominantly from the confirmation of the zero-emission vehicle mandate and a deal for industrial electrification, although a strategy for workers in communities experiencing job losses in sectors affected by the Net Zero transition is urgently needed to support the latter.
· The increase to total funding and to individual grants available from £5,000 to £7,500 for installing heat pumps in homes via the Boiler Upgrade Scheme also demonstrated good progress.
However, these positive steps forward have been undermined by confusing and inconsistent messaging and actions. In particular, the previous UK Government announced:
· Delays to phase-out dates of fossil-fuel vehicles and boilers, sending mixed messages to investors, businesses and consumers on the UK’s plans.
· An exemption of 20% of households from the phase-out of fossil-fuel boilers by 2035, which is of particular concern, making Net Zero harder to achieve. The motivation for this exemption is unclear, and it creates widespread uncertainty for consumers, investors and businesses at a time where significant build-up in supply chains is needed. Coupled with the delay to the phase-out of oil boilers from 2026 to 2035 and an announcement to delay the start of the clean heat market mechanism by a year just weeks before it was due to start, our assessment of the policies for low-carbon heat has got worse this year.
· A decision not to regulate for improved energy efficiency of rented homes.
Public support is essential for the delivery of Net Zero. The above announcements were given with the justification that they will make the transition more affordable for people, but with no evidence backing this claim. Confusing and inconsistent messaging risks having the opposite effect, by undermining consumer confidence and the development of UK supply chains. Removing regulations on energy efficiency for rented homes misses an opportunity to reduce energy bills for tenants at a time when gas prices are particularly high. The cost-of-living crisis is affecting people right now, yet these delays and exemptions will have most impact in the mid-2030s. It is particularly unclear how the 20% exemption to the fossil-fuel boiler ban will help reduce costs when the cost of maintaining the gas distribution networks would need to sit with such a small proportion of households.
There remains a significant proportion (14%) of the required emissions reductions covered by completely insufficient plans and an additional 4% gap between the former Government’s quantified pathway and the 2030 NDC target. These insufficient plans are predominantly from the delays and exemptions announced in the last year; in the industry sector; and from a lack of policies for agriculture and land.
Next steps
The new UK Government needs to set out a clear commitment to the Net Zero transition, backed with rapid policy action and a sharp-eyed focus on removing barriers to deployment. This will build confidence for investors, businesses and consumers and create the right conditions for markets to deliver. Policy must also address the urgent need for effective and integrated adaptation action and be designed to ensure the transition is delivered in a fair way.
Polling shows that the UK public has no appetite for climate division. The Climate Change Act 2008 grew out of a consensus across UK politics in relation to climate change. The framework it established has proven its effectiveness, with the UK having met all its carbon budgets to date. That consensus also helped previous UK Governments to play a leading role in international climate diplomacy and accelerate actions worldwide, but it has begun to fray. There is an opportunity to rebuild that consensus across Parliament, and for the governments of the UK, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to work to achieve common climate goals.
Together, government, investors, businesses and consumers can drive a rapid shift away from fossil fuels and towards an increasingly cheaper, more secure and lower-carbon future.